Avoid destinations that draw international travelers taking advantage of the weak dollar.

Certain U.S. cities, most notably New York and Miami, are filled with big spenders from Europe, the Middle East, Russia, and China. While many flights to Orlando have been cut, hotel prices there are propped up by overseas visitors—although, says Berman, "that's not going to last forever." In the meantime, don't try to compete with this international clientele. Think Phoenix, San Diego, Santa Fe, Savannah, Tampa, and Tucson. Adds Berman, "The heartland of America is destined for a real trough." If New York City is a must, go when rates drop—during the week between Christmas and New Year's.

Look at brand-new properties and their local competitors.

"Most hotels offer introductory rates for as long as their first year of operation," says Hennessey. Since the majority of new properties are mid-level chain hotels, that's where you'll find most of these deals this fall and winter. Two new Starwood brands, for instance—Aloft (which is like a less expensive W) and Element (an extended-stay option that is great for families with children)—are opening 55 properties within the next year. Hennessey predicts that they will offer introductory rates and other inducements, leading competitors based nearby (for Aloft, Hilton Garden Inns and Courtyard by Marriott; for Element, Hilton's Homewood Suites or Marriott's Residence Inns) to cut rates in response. At the luxury end, there will likely be properties that switch brands and need to fill rooms—such as the year-old St. Regis Fort Lauderdale, which Ritz-Carlton took over in July. "I think we're going to see more hotels change flags because of the economic conditions," says Vivian Deuschl, Ritz-Carlton's vice president of public relations. "These hotels will want you in the door." Top-flight travel agents will know which properties recently changed hands and, consequently, dropped rates. More and more plush new properties are also participating in auctions on LuxuryLink.com, says its president, Diane McDavitt. LuxuryLink auctions offer "value-added packages that are designed to showcase what's special about a property," she says—packages that include dinners, spa treatments, and chefs' tours of the kitchens—at savings of up to 50 percent.

Watch for promotional rates via e-mail.

You know those e-mail messages you get from your credit card issuer that you usually delete without reading? Don't, says Berman. Luxury hotel brands are busy forging innovative alliances with credit card companies as well as high-end retailers. "If a luxury hotel brand wants to push rooms at its resorts," he says, "it may partner with a credit card to push a certain type of property with a card member-only rate. If I called up a rate myself, it might be $379, but for a cardholder the rate might be $329."