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Navigating Air Travel's New Reality

by Barbara S. Peterson | Published December 2008 | See more Condé Nast Traveler articles

Raising prices for diminished service isn't a winning strategy for keeping customers. Indeed, in a recent Condé Nast Traveler survey, fully 82 percent of readers said they'd travel less if prices rose by 20 percent or more. And while 47 percent said they would be willing to pay extra for an in-flight meal, most balked at the other fees, with only 20 percent saying they would shell out to check a bag. Most agreed the air travel experience has headed south: 70 percent of those surveyed said they had experienced a flight delay of more than an hour in the past year, and nearly 30 percent said a carrier had lost their bag or canceled their flight.

How bad will it get? Here, we look at the many ways in which you will feel the airlines' changes—and what you can do to minimize the pain.

DISAPPEARING FLIGHTS

One of the most striking changes will be the sheer number of flights that are simply vanishing with the airlines' fall schedules—and may never return. The largest carriers are cutting up to 15 percent of their seats, bringing airline capacity to its lowest level in more than ten years. United, for example, is parking its entire fleet of 737s—some 90 aircraft—and idling its geriatric 747s. American is swapping its aging MD-80s for new, more fuel-efficient 737s. This will have the salutary effect of saving energy costs, but the biggest gains will come from purging the weaker flights from their systems.

The ax won't fall evenly. Some destinations known for their cheap fares will get disproportionately whacked. Leisure meccas like Las Vegas, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, and San Juan will see double-digit decreases in the percentage of available seats, but even major cities like Los Angeles and Chicago are hemorrhaging more than 11 percent of their passenger capacity. L.A. is losing 640,000 seats a month, as American, Delta, and United all slash their service there. Chicago's two airports, O'Hare and Midway, are down by an estimated 322,000 seats a month combined. In Cleveland, dominant carrier Continental is cutting seats by 13 percent and eliminating nonstop flights to 24 cities. Other cities slated to lose at least ten percent of their scheduled service include Cincinnati, Columbus, Honolulu, and Houston. "The bottom line is we're eliminating money-losing routes," says American's Garton. "We need to get our costs and revenue back in sync."

Smaller airports, often seen as alternatives to clogged metropolitan facilities, are also feeling the pinch. Oakland—where American, for example, recently dropped all service—is losing 28 percent of its business. The U.S. government could step in to preserve flights to smaller communities that might get lopped from the route maps of penny-pinching carriers. But a longtime subsidy called the Essential Air Service program may not survive the current budget crisis in Washington. "There simply is too much capacity chasing the amount of business that is out there," says American Airlines pricing chief Scott Nason.

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