Holiday Fares to Europe: Buy Now or Wait?
My peripatetic colleague Kate Maxwell's next destination is London . . . for Christmas. Above, Kate in Vegas.
by Wendy Perrin
Question of the day: If you want to fly to Europe over the Christmas/New Year's holiday, should you buy your ticket now or wait?
Fellow Conde Nast Traveler staffer Kate Maxwell of Today Show fame came into my office this morning with just this question. She wants to fly from New York to London on December 23, returning December 30. She asked whether she should buy now--the best price she'd found for a non-stop was about $700--or hold out for a better fare?
My answer, after the jump.
My gut says wait. I know that's a gamble, though, and since I don't want to be responsible for a colleague losing money, I called up Farecast.live.com on the computer. Why? It attempts to predict, based on historical fare data, whether the lowest fare for a trip will rise or fall within the next seven days.
According to Farecast, the current lowest price for a nonstop--$673 on Continental--will drop by $50+ within the next 7 days. The site says it has 78% confidence in that prediction. So I've advised Kate to wait. And Kate is so game for any kind of travel experiment that she's happy to risk it.
I'll definitely come back to you all within the next couple of weeks and let you know when Kate does book and at what price. Meanwhile, I'd love to hear from any of you travel industry watchers and pricing prognosticators out there: What would YOU advise Kate to do?
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I'm with you Wendy.
Its definitely going to drop a little. I would say wait till a day or two after thanksgiving.
Lola
http://www.lemurworks.com/lola
Posted by: augustgreen | November 14, 2008 at 11:40 AM
I found $653.47 CO EWR-LHR for those dates - lower with a broker $603.51. Best connecting flight AC via Montreal $564.43. Icelandair had a $177 round trip base fare (plus taxes of course - and no longer available).
So my answer is if you are flexible, maybe wait - if you are firm on non-stop flights and dates - you are too near a holiday - book now.
Posted by: lorib | November 14, 2008 at 04:26 PM
downside of waiting... availability. what few seats that may be remaining could go in a flash. don't think she's the only one aware of price drop & not jumping on 'sale'. I say grab it now... and assure a seat under her bum.
Posted by: deannadv | November 17, 2008 at 09:43 AM
Air Canada: $577
December 23-30 LaGuardia to Heathrow (layover both ways in Montreal).
Enjoy London!
TravelByAndy.com
Posted by: TravelByAndy | November 17, 2008 at 11:58 AM
I personally think the time has come to book. Seats are going to start selling out and the prices increasing. $50 is not worth the risk.
Jason Sarracini
http://www.tripquips.com
Posted by: jsarra | November 17, 2008 at 01:47 PM